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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 15

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 70-C.Van Lanen reported in as eligible. 33-B.Tuten up the middle to LV 11 for 4 yards (52-E.Roberts; 45-D.White).

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.94 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model