4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 13

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 9

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left end to LV 7 for 6 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.96 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model