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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 20 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to LV 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.00 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model