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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 5

Houston Texans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP