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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 32

Houston Texans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.05 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model