Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 57

Houston Texans 15 – Denver Broncos 15

(10:53) 6-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to DEN 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy to DEN 20 for 12 yards (11-T.Smith; 22-J.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.88 EP
72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 57, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model