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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 79

Denver Broncos 7 – Houston Texans 15

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 67 yards to HOU 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.69 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP