Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 69

Denver Broncos 7 – Houston Texans 15

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to HOU 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 14-J.Noel ran ob at HOU 29 for 11 yards (48-M.Fraboni). HOU-52-D.Taylor was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-48-M.Fraboni, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.05 EP
66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model