4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 23

Houston Texans 12 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.18 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model