Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 63

Denver Broncos 7 – Houston Texans 12

(12:25) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to HOU 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at DEN 47 for 45 yards (92-D.Tillman; 40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.30 EP
62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model