Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 67

Houston Texans 9 – Denver Broncos 7

(:46) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to DEN 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-22-J.Smith at DEN 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.22 EP
67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model