Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 74

Denver Broncos 7 – Houston Texans 9

(1:11) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 40 yards to HOU 34, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-26-D.Key.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.65 EP
71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model