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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 20

Houston Texans 6 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.76 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP