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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 6 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(13:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 19-C.Wilson to BAL 37 for 7 yards (44-M.Humphrey).

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.33 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model