4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 6 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 16-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to BAL 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -3.62 EP
KICK -2.30 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.94 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.57 EP
PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model