Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 94

Miami Dolphins 6 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to 50, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-46-I.Johnson. PENALTY on BAL-39-K.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -3.52 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.97 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 94, worth -5.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model