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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 79

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(:41) 11-J.Stout punts 63 yards to MIA 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 6-M.Washington to MIA 19 for 3 yards (27-T.Tampa).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.40 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 36, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model