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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 13

Miami Dolphins 6 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(1:08) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 28-D.Achane.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.55 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 13, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model