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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 11-J.Stout punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP