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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 25

Miami Dolphins 3 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 47-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.84 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model