Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

(5:17) 3-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to IND 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 27 for 20 yards (3-J.Hekker).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.89 EP
72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model