Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 63

Indianapolis Colts 38 – Tennessee Titans 14

(1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.27 EP
56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -2.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model