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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 16

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 38

What Actually Happened

(7:01) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep middle intended for 17-C.Dike INTERCEPTED by 38-C.Lammons at IND -3. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP