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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 37

Indianapolis Colts 31 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:12) 28-J.Taylor left end pushed ob at TEN 33 for 4 yards (28-Q.Diggs).

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model