Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 24

(9:45) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to IND 26, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model