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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 42

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 3-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP