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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.11 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 68, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 26, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model