4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 3-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to IND 15, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.63 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP