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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to IND 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould to IND 37 for 13 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson; 30-K.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.73 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 31, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model