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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYG 9 for 2 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). New York Giants challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +3.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.36 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model