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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to NYG 41 for 5 yards (24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.26 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model