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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 2 at the 2
New York Giants 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 38
What Actually Happened
(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.09 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
- 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 2, worth -0.09 EP
KICK
+1.89 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT
-0.39 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
