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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 53

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to PHI 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.79 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model