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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 34 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.36 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model