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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 63

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 34

What Actually Happened

(6:23) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Jefferson [20-C.Hart].

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.16 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP