4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to LAC 12, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Davis to LAC 22 for 10 yards (0-I.Pace). PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 12.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.55 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP