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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 26

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 39-J.Romo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.47 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP