4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 38

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(:27) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 25-T.Allgeier to MIA 34 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.68 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model