4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 8

Miami Dolphins 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 31-O.Gordon right guard to ATL 7 for 1 yard (21-M.Hughes; 31-X.Watts). Atlanta challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +3.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.38 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 8, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model