4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 27

Miami Dolphins 34 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(1:09) (Shotgun) 0-Z.Wilson pass short right to 5-J.Wright to ATL 27 for no gain (21-M.Hughes).

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.02 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model