Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 65

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Miami Dolphins 31

(11:04) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 37 for 2 yards (9-I.Melifonwu).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

What Happened

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.27 EP
57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model