Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 63

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(11:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to MIA 21, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.58 EP
51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model