Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 82

Miami Dolphins 17 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to ATL 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 43 for 8 yards (27-E.Bonner; 49-J.Cardona). PENALTY on ATL-84-F.Franks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.74 EP
55% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model