4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to MIA 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 6-M.Washington to MIA 18 for no gain (28-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.96 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model