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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 92

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to ATL 49, Center-49-L.McCullough. 6-M.Washington to ATL 40 for 9 yards (35-N.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.43 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 92, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 50, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model