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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 57

Miami Dolphins 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to ATL 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew. PENALTY on ATL-84-F.Franks, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at ATL 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.61 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP