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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 81

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-T.Sieg. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 38 for 13 yards (35-M.Liufau; 89-B.Spann-Ford).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.45 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 81, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 38, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model