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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Denver Broncos 44

What Actually Happened

(:35) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to DEN 9, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 21-R.Moss.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.69 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -1.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model