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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 62

Denver Broncos 44 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 33 yards to DAL 29, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.36 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP