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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 6

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 17-B.Aubrey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.20 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 6, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP